Can We Predict Earthquakes At All?

My hometown of Los Angeles is home to the earliest reported earthquake dating back to 1769 (and, of course, many more since then). The largest recorded earthquake in the world occurred in Chile in May of 1960 measuring at a magnitude of 9.5 moment magnitudes. A single earthquake can cause destruction costing hundreds of millions of dollars to repair and, far more importantly, can end in fatalities.

In 2009, scientists in Italy were convicted of manslaughter for failing to predict the L’Aquila earthquake that killed more than 300 people. But how successful can we expect our quake predictions to be?

If we can predict hurricanes, floods, and tornados, although to differing degrees of reliability, why don’t we know when the next “big one” is going to happen when it comes to earthquakes?

In the United States, the scientific experts on all things geology are at the US Geological Survey. Their webpage on earthquake prediction starts: “Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future.” Well, that is pretty clear!

But why not? If we can predict hurricanes, floods, and tornados, although to differing degrees of reliability, why don’t we know when the next “big one” is going to happen when it comes to earthquakes?

What is an earthquake?

To understand the challenges involved in predicting an earthquake, and what is lacking in our current efforts to make those predictions, we need to know what causes an earthquake.

Our understanding of what makes an earthquake happen is based on the theory of plate tectonics, or the idea that the Earth’s outer crust is composed of movable slabs of rock called plates. These plates can shift around on top of the rocky yet more malleable inner layer below them, called the Earth’s mantle, which sits above the molten material of the Earth’s core. Our modern theory of plate tectonics has only been around since the 1950s and it is thought that there are...

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